Readers of this newspaper have recently seen conflicting predictions about the local economy’s prospects for 2013.
Last month, Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University predicted “dim growth prospects” for our area in the coming months but foresaw fairly decent job growth of 1.7 percent by the end of 2013.
Last week, the University of Georgia’s Selig Center for Economic Growth in the Terry College of Business predicted anemic job growth — well under 1 percent — for the Savannah area in 2013.
Last weekend, the Economic Monitor published by the Armstrong Atlantic State University Center for Regional Analysis, directed by Michael Toma, noted an uptick in economic activity and predicted the good news would continue at least through the first half of 2013.
So who’s right?
I’ll admit to being a little baffled by the numbers from UGA’s Selig Center. The latest report seems only to be looking at data from the first half of 2012. The Georgia State forecast also seems too gloomy, at least for the first part of 2013.
As I’ve noted in this space off and on all year, Savannah has experienced a surge in new investment throughout 2012. In the last few months, employment numbers have been reflecting that robust trend.
Since employment is a lagging indicator of economic activity, we have every reason to expect that the good news will continue in the first part of 2013.
Both the UGA and AASU predictions sensibly note the dangers of the “fiscal cliff.”
But keep in mind that there’s no “cliff.”
Bill McBride at Calculated Risk — one of the more reasonable voices in the world of economic reporting — has begun using the phrase “austerity slope” to describe the constellation of spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to begin in 2013.
No matter what political course we take, it seems likely that measures to rein in the federal debt and deficit will almost certainly be a drag on the national economy next year.
But the local economy still has some significant momentum that seems likely to continue into the beginning of 2013, no matter what happens in Washington.
I’ll be back in a few weeks with some broader predictions for 2013.
Sandfly merchants hosting open house on Thursday
Last week, I mentioned holiday events by merchants in the Downtown Design District and those around Wright Square.
On Thursday, Dec. 6, Sandfly merchants will host their annual Holiday Open House from 5-9 p.m.
The event will feature specials and various promotions at nearly 20 shops and restaurants. It should be a great night for regulars in the area and for those eager to check out a new retail district.
City Talk appears every Sunday and Tuesday. Bill Dawers can be reached via billdawers@comcast.net and http://www.billdawers.com. Send mail to 10 E. 32nd St., Savannah, GA 31401.