ATLANTA — The Savannah economy will add jobs next year at a modest clip, according to a forecast the University of Georgia released Thursday at the kickoff of a series of luncheon presentations around the state.
The university’s Selig Center for Economic Growth in the Terry College of Business prepared the forecast, which calls for the Savannah area’s employment to grow by 0.4 percent in 2013. That would be a tiny improvement over the 0.2 percent pace for the current year.
The metro area would also lag the rest of the state’s 2.1 percent expansion and the nation’s 1.3 percent.
“Savannah’s long-term growth prospects are among the best in the nation because its unique ambiance and transportation infrastructure make it an attractive place in which to live and do business,” the economists wrote in the forecast. “Retirees will continue to be an important force, powering and diversifying the region’s economic development, but the Savannah area will benefit from the fact that its population is increasing in all age groups.”
When the bursting real-estate bubble halted the influx of retirees to the area, that hurt the local economy and is still cramping the local governments that rely on property taxes. Local governments — like the federal government — will continue to shrink their payrolls.
However, state government here has already cut more than 6,000 jobs and now spends 4.3 percent less than it did 10 years ago, according to Gov. Nathan Deal, the luncheon’s leadoff speaker. It also doubled its reserves just since he entered office.
“I think it exemplifies in very concrete terms that the state of Georgia is trying to be frugal,” he said.
Terry College Dean Robert Sumichrast said the state’s efforts to trim costs are one reason Georgia’s economy will outperform the national economy next year.
Low costs, tax advantages and friendly government policies will also contribute.
“I think Georgia’s economy will grow in 2013 and grow faster than the nation as a whole. That’s a change from what you’ve been hearing from me in the past five years,” he said. “... Don’t get too excited. We’re only predicting growth a little over 2 percent.”
For the first time since 2000, no sector of private employment will reduce jobs, even though the government sector will. The leisure/hospitality, professional/business services and manufacturing sectors are adding jobs at the fastest tempo. Exports will continue growing, but at a slower rate next year.
The UGA economists are betting Congress finds a way to avert most of the impact of the so-called fiscal cliff of steep, federal tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled for Jan. 1. But they say small-business owners will feel the sting of tax increases and will continue to have trouble getting money to expand.
The school will present the state, national and local forecast in detail Jan. 17 at the Westin Savannah Harbor Golf Resort & Spa.